Monday, July 31, 2006
Why Howard Vs Beazley is bad for the country but good for the minor parties
This was first published by crikey.com.au
The prospect for another Howard vs Beazley election will bore the pants of many progressive and young voters. Having lived through the same in 1998 and 2001 there are plenty of people who have spent most of their adult life in a perpetual sense of deja vu about politics.
The perception that Kim Beazley is John Howard-lite was nailed forever by the Tampa experience and his recent abandonment of an anti-uranium/nuclear position has just driven this home.
For voters looking for something different, minor parties will be their only choice. If a voter wants something different out of politics, or some excitement, or some change they are not going to vote for John Howard or Kim Beazley. They represent everything that is old in politics. And while this might suit the times for some of the electorate (with Howard and Beazley acting as kind of safe ‘father’ figures in a age of terrorism etc), there is a decent swag of the Australian population that wants some choice in their politics.
There is also the possibility that some voters will baulk at power residing so much in one person for so long. Not only will Howard have wielded executive power for over 11 and half years come election time, but he will have had the Senate for over 2 years as well.
As the leading vote pullers amongst the minor parties at the moment the Greens are the obvious front runners to capitalize but they will have to make sure their fresh round of candidates are up to the job and that they can successfully position themselves as providing actual solutions to the emerging big global issue – climate change.
Most people are writing the Democrats off but the party aint over till the last Senator is gone and anything is possible if there is a big non-major party vote. More likely though the Senate will be a battle between the Greens and the Christian right’s Family First. Meanwhile Labor’s Senate leader Chris Evans is also reportedly crafting a strategy to get the Labor vote up in the Senate.
The challenge remains: can the progressive forces in Australia ignite a second election in 2007 to defeat the Coalition and Family First in the Senate? Can people be convinced that there are really two polls going on and that their second vote for the Senate is just as important. If so, it is possible that the Coalition could be reduced below the critical 43% in at least two states thereby removing their control of the Senate.
Even voters happy with Howard on one level can easily be persuaded that having the Senate in the hands of one man for so long is not a good thing.