Greenwash Political Action Party and Urban Grassroots Movement for the Green Party

Friday, June 16, 2006

Why it was good for John Howard that Gary Humphries crossed the floor

This post was first published by crikey.com.au

There is little doubt that Humphries' motivation for crossing the floor was political as well as ideological.

If there is one Coalition Senator whose seat is almost certainly under threat at the next election it is Mr Humphries.

As a result of 3 years of conservative Senate control there will likely be increased focus on the Senate race in 2007. There is a real prospect that the politically educated ACT senate electorate will move against their Coalition Senator.

It is unlikely that the ALP could get near the 66% of the vote required to win 2 Senate seats but, with preferences, the Greens could go close to picking up Mr Humphries' seat.

This would likely have a huge effect on the overall make up of the Senate.

In the ACT and the NT, Senators face election every three years, not six as is the case for the states. It is highly unlikely that the "fluke" result that returned 4 Coalition Senators for Queensland will be repeated again. Since the Coalition's majority is only one seat wide, if it were to lose a seat in the ACT it would likely loose control of the Senate.
That is not to say losing Humphries' seat will automatically result in Howard losing control of the Senate. He has the insurance of the Labor Party's preference decision which put Steve Fielding in the Senate for a full six year term.

The late Ric Farley went close to becoming a Democrat Senator for the ACT a few years ago, and with the right candidate the Greens could go close in 2007. Imagine the platform the Greens would have hand to stand on if Mr Humphries had voted to allow Howard to overrule his home town. It would have been game over. And maybe game over for the Coalition's Senate control.

Perhaps this is why Howard had no comment yesterday on Humphries crossing the floor. Perhaps it was with a wink and a nod that Howard, knowing he had Family First on side, allowed Gary Humphries to cross without fear of reprisal.

posted by Ben Oquist # 1:29 PM 0 comments