Monday, March 20, 2006
Weekend elections point to 2007 struggle between Greens and Family First
I’m just off the plane from election weekend in Tasmania and have noticed some misleading ‘analysis’ going around about the Tasmanian and South Australian elections.
Tasmania
One in six Tasmanians voted for the Greens – that’s 16% of the vote across the Apple Isle. Although there was a small swing away from us of 1.9%, this compares to a swing away from the ALP of 2.3% and was achieved in the face of unprecedented negative attacks against the Greens.
In addition to a sustained campaign against the possibility of a minority government, a
massive underhand anti-Greens advertising blitz was unleashed in the last days of the campaign funded by the big partes, big business and the religious cult - the Exclusive Brethren.
Yet despite this, the Greens will win at least 3 seats - and possibly a 4th (Kim Booth in Bass). Scrutineers in Bass tell us that there is a strong flow of preferences from the anti-pulp mill independent and that there may be leakage away from the ALP ticket via the strong personal vote for Michele O’Byrne.
Our vote held up slightly better in the south of the State than the north where the underhand attacks on the Greens hit the hardest.
However, as commentator and University of Tasmania academic Richard Herr pointed out in Hobart ABC radio this morning, 16% is a big vote for a minor party.
Under the old Tasmanian electoral system - which the Labor and Liberal parties worked together to remove in 1998 in a devious attempt to get rid of the Greens - we would have won 7 seats.
Meanwhile Greens leader in Tasmania, Peg Putt, got 3000 more votes than any other individual candidate – Labor or Liberal - in the seat of Denison.
South Australia
Great news from South Australia where it looks like Mark Parnell will win the first Greens upper house seat in the SA Parliament.
The Greens more than doubled its lower house vote to 6.3% in a tight tussle with Family First who scored 5.8%.
Although no Family First candidate stood in Tasmania, the preference deal it brokered for the last Federal election saw it almost knock off popular Greens candidate (and now Senator) Christine Milne – despite a primary vote of less than 2%. And as the Exclusive Brethren have shown in this election, the religious right is alive and well in Tasmania.
So with the death of the Democrats, it looks like the next big minor party battle ground will be the struggle between the Greens and Family First for Senate seats in 2007.
Hold on to your hats as we do battle with the religious right in the campaign to
Rescue the Senate next year.